Two weeks from now Alberta votes on whether to begin the legal process of leaving Canada. The latest polls have separation at 22%. Danielle Smith, the premier who called the referendum, publicly said that number is “still too high for my comfort.” She doesn’t want it to pass. Sixty percent of Albertans will vote no. Half the province says the question is confusing. And yet here we are, burning public money on a vote whose entire purpose is to let Smith tell the loudest 22% of her caucus she tried.
This is what happens when a politician runs out of actual leverage and starts manufacturing crises to keep the base fed. Smith spent two years telling Ottawa she’d take her ball and go home. Ottawa called her bluff. Now she’s holding a referendum that will confirm, loudly and expensively, that Alberta would rather stay. The separatists get their day in the spotlight. Everyone else gets the bill. And Smith gets to shrug and say the people have spoken, which was the plan the entire time.